Ron Paul; by the numbers

August 25, 2007

   I have come to the conclusion that people really don’t wish to support a candidate without understanding what effect the candidates platform will have on them economically.  That being the case, I thought I’d share with you The fiscal impact Ron Paul’s vision will have on you.  First, I’ll give it to you scientifically.

1.   uh, I dunno.

That takes care of the scientifically derived at numbers for Ron Paul’s issues.  Now we shall move on to the rhetorical.

1.  uh, I dunno.

   You see, Ron Paul isn’t giving us any numbers.  There is nothing substantive in what he says.  He will save us money by ending the war, but then he will spend it defending our borders.  There is no economic model designed to tell us what his constitutional form of government will cost/benefit us, but rather merely the assurances of the good Dr. and his merry men.  I suppose a Robin Hood analogy is inappropriate, because from what I can tell the one thing that is certain is that the poor will be screwed severely by a Ron Paul presidency.  That hardly matters of course, because poor people vote democrat, don’t they?  Hardly, but they aren’t going to be voting for Ron Paul.  They know he hates them, as do any liberals that have paid attention over the last two decades of Ron Paul in office.

    The crossover vote isn’t going to happen.  The vast left wing media armada will put the boots to Ron the minute he appears to be a viable candidate.  The left wing blog world already has, and if you read the daily kos you know what I mean.  Basically, Ron Paul’s only supporters are those who dream of a mythological kingdom where honesty and fairplay conquers reality, and a small time doctor can live his dream of  colonial domination.

   Show me some numbers.  Anybody.  Give me something tangible that would make me think Ron Paul would make my life better.  Don’t offer me his dream of freedom, because freedom in todays society is something you have to take.  Don’t give me more rhetoric about the free market making everything right.  The free market has long been fraught with fraud and corruption, and in no way benefits the vast majority of American people.

   It’s smoke and mirrors gang, until he proves otherwise, and thats why the mainstream media doesn’t cover his campaign.  There is virtually nothing to cover.

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Ron Paul strong In Straw polls (10 listed)

August 20, 2007

  We have here a list of his finishing position in the straw polls.  He’s done extremely well and this article questions why the mainstream media isn’t picking up on the story.  Besides the fact that Ron Paul is doing well in the polls, and the mainstream media avoids talking avbout that.

   Well, I have a theory.  It’s not a real complicated one so you won’t have to put on your thinking caps and sit up straight.  what the hell, you don’t even have to put down your beer.   It’s because they are virtually meaningless.  What do we have? 

   We have seven straw polls named for states, and only Iowa had more than 500 voters.  Most were in the 200 range.  Thats a very small, generally localized sampling.

  We have two taxpayer organization polls.  These are surely going to be places Ron Paul does well, because these are organizations that back extreme changes in the tax code.  Thats like home field advantage.

  Bottom line is these polls are so small, a minute grassroots organization (a local meetup group, drug legalization organization, firearms group, militia) can easily swing the vote.  They mean nothing, because nobody was involved.  Every other shred of data shows him doing no better than 5% on a national level, and the mainstream media is reporting news, not writing feel good stories for Ron Paul backers.  Thats what the damn blogbowl is for.

   To summate…quit crowing about the minuscule.  Other than Iowa these meant nothing, and he placed 5th their, with two major contenders abstaining.  I’m not saying his message isn’t fundamentally sound on the big issues, but his small issues positions are keeping his voting base to small.

authors note: according to my reading, and i’m from Indiana, he tied for first here amongst a couple of hundred voters with around 25% of the vote.


Ron Pauls base revisitied

August 9, 2007

    I keep reading these articles that tell me how many groups with how many members Ron Paul’s Grassroots campaign has.  They are fairly formidable when you think about it.  Trying to get from 20,000 to 30,000 people to voluntarily get together to do anything usually requires a major sporting event or an attack on a third world country.  The problem is, that no matter how you slice it, they are running out of time.

    6 months.  In 6 months who vs. who will be decided.  By the middle of February it will all be over but the crying for the rest of the candidates, and I fear, Dr. Paul.  He has a rabid online fan base, but they aren’t reaching beyonf their own inner circle.  Bottom line, if you don’t want to read about Ron you don’t have to because his base isn’t making any concerted effort to change the hearts and minds so to speak.  They talk to each other a lot, and they go slam ant-paulers, but they aren’t doing anything to reach that 98% of the voters that just are not interested in the Ron Paul movement.

   Whether this is a part of the natural individualist nature of people who would support a small government libertarian, or simply because the internet isn’t a great way to create political change isn’t apparent to me. What is apparent is that Ron is simply going to run out of time.  His ideals are to big for most people to wrap their minds around.  Small government sounds good until you see a bridge collapse in Minnesota, or until you have to decide that being a loser in a war we should win isn’t so bad.  American’s do not like to lose, and while their is a vocal minority screaming to get out of Iraq, far more people would like to see us win and get out of Iraq.

    Without a concerted effort by his base to change their approach to the issue of spreading the word about Ron Paul he has no chance.  You can spam every internet poll from now until doomsday, and he will still be a minor congressman from Texas.   Use your voice.  I’m not a supporter, but just by talking to people I see how easy it is to get them to at least contemplate the idea of small government.  To ponder the idea of an America that doesn’t spread its message through gunboat diplomacy.  Change is not unwelcome, but with the media steadfastly sticking to it’s “he’s not a legitimate candidate” rhetoric, his followers need to make the adjustment.  They aren’t, and by the time they do, Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, or Rudy will be challenging Hillary for the presidency of the United States.  Wake up Pauliacs.  You are running out of time.  Quit waiting for that big win to change things, when what is needed is hard work and communication.


Ron Paul expanding his base

August 7, 2007

   I’m not totally surprised by what I see happening on the right.  It should be a warning for all the candidates that Ron Paul is fast gathering the disgruntled voters to his horde.  While he was just a blog sensation they had nothing to fear, but it seems on the surface as if all that is changing.  The impending straw poll in Iowa will help sort out just how much of an inroad he has made into the mainstream electorate.

   A few things I have noticed already

1.  Google hits at my blog, or I should say server hits relating to Ron Paul have increased by a factor of 10 since sunday mornings debate.  I’m not sure the two are related, but reading about Ron Paul from outside the blogosphere has begun to increase.  These are likely as not everyday people who happen to have computers, as the numbers were consistent for the 2.5 months I’ve been blogging.

2.  The hits seem to be directed at issues which may make this even a little more sinister for the rest of the candidates.  People don’t seem to be looking at for/against articles so much as they are looking at issue related articles.  Marque and reprisal, earmarks, Nafta Superhighway, and immigration reform articles have received a genuine old fashioned monkey stomp from the search engines.

3.  His face is showing up closer to the front page on the main news sources (FOX, MSNBC, CNN), and all you have to do is click the politics tab, and he is present now on a regular basis.

   The natural question is why?  It would appear that people are tired of the same old song and dance.  If you really look at them, what do Giuliani and Romney offer that we haven’t already seen?  McCain will almost certainly go down in history as one of the most decent men ever to play the politics game, but he is on the wrong side of some issues that Americans seem to feel very strongly about.  Immigration and the war in Iraq are likely as not going to decide this election, and as I said weeks ago, if they let the immigration issue lie dormant it is going to kill the members of congress that are running.  Incidentally, Ron Paul is on the right side of both of these issues.

   Another reason quite simply is they like what he has to say about foreign policy.  The one thing people aren’t looking for here is his foreign policy stance.  That would probably be because they already understand it, and they already agree with it.

    I’m not sold on Ron Paul, and I won’t be.  My vote is hardly the deciding factor.  What is apparent, and important, is that people are taking a closer look.  Only time will tell if it maters or not.